Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband will set out a UK ban on trade in goods and some services from illegal Israeli settlements in the West Bank during a statement to MPs on Tuesday, pledging a more active government stance in support of Palestinian rights.

The move comes as new polling by Opinium, published by the European Council on Foreign Relations and reported by The Guardian, shows British voters back a settlement trade ban by more than two to one, with 46% in favour and 18% opposed.

According to UK media reports, Mr Miliband will present the measures to the House of Commons as part of a broad reset in diplomatic relations. He is expected to adopt firmer language on humanitarian conditions in Gaza and stand by his position that the Israel Defense Forces have imposed unnecessary restrictions on aid deliveries. While the measures stop short of the full demands of Palestinian advocacy groups, they mark a transition towards direct economic intervention to curb settlement growth.

The policy is a direct response to Israeli plans to issue tenders for 1,200 settler homes in the strategically sensitive E1 zone. Prime Minister Andy Burnham is expected to state that Britain will not accept the "destruction of the two-state solution".

Ministers are bracing for a sharp diplomatic reaction from both Washington and Tel Aviv. The White House is expected to release a statement criticising the ban after Mr Burnham briefed US President Donald Trump by telephone on Monday. Downing Street confirmed the Prime Minister also briefed key Gulf allies, including Qatar, but has not spoken with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu since taking office on July 20.

Tensions had already flared on Monday evening when Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir urged retaliatory sanctions against the UK and called on Mr Netanyahu to recognise the Falkland Islands as Argentine territory. That followed earlier comments from Mr Trump suggesting the US could re-evaluate its stance on the Falklands after former prime minister Keir Starmer declined to support US and Israeli strikes on Iran. Argentine President Javier Milei has similarly claimed "winds of change" are approaching over the islands.

International precedent highlights potential diplomatic fallout: the Netherlands was excluded from participating in the Gaza peace process after enacting comparable settlement trade sanctions in August.

Domestically, the measures have raised practical and political concerns. Tom Keatinge, head of the centre for finance and security at the Royal United Services Institute, told The Telegraph that legal uncertainty could cause risk-averse UK lenders to halt Israeli trade entirely, warning: "There’s no such thing as a smart sanction, just like there’s no such thing as a smart bomb. The room for interpretation is enormous." Jonathan Hall KC, the independent reviewer of terrorism legislation, told BBC Newsnight that the government must also assess potential repercussions for counter-terrorism co-operation.

The decision is also dividing Labour as the party contests a by-election against the Green Party in Holborn & St Pancras. While more than 140 Labour MPs signed a letter calling for the settlement ban, MPs associated with Labour Friends of Israel have warned the policy risks turning into a "de facto boycott" of Israel.

The dispute follows heated rhetoric from US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee, who recently accused Labour of "Jew hate" after Mr Miliband shared footage relating to Gaza aid convoys — an allegation Downing Street rejected.

What we don't know yet is whether Mr Netanyahu's cabinet will pursue retaliatory measures over the Falklands, nor the exact legal parameters of the services ban once Mr Miliband presents the legislation. I will be monitoring the Commons statement and updating as details emerge.