Germany's far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is heading for a dramatic victory in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt, securing a record 44% of the vote with most interim results counted.

The result puts the anti-migration party well clear of its mainstream rivals, with the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) slumping to 17% — less than half its previous share. While the AfD is projected to take 39 seats in the 83-seat state parliament, three short of the 42 needed for an outright majority, party leaders insist they have won a mandate to govern.

If you are watching German politics closely, this is a genuine landmark. No far-right party has taken control of a German state since the Second World War, and running a regional administration comes with substantial powers over local education, policing, and culture.

At the AfD's election night gathering, supporters cheered and broke into the German national anthem as exit polls revealed the party had more than doubled its 2021 result. Ulrich Siegmund, the party's 35-year-old state leader, called the outcome "sensational" and declared: "We have made history in this state." Saxony-Anhalt's domestic intelligence services classify the local party branch as "right-wing extremist", though Siegmund firmly rejects that label.

Mainstream German television reflected the scale of the political shift, with primary channel Das Erste dropping its flagship crime drama Tatort to cover the fallout. In Magdeburg, CDU state leader Sven Schulze conceded defeat after what he called an "extremely tough and intensive election campaign."

The reaction from Berlin was swift. Lars Klingbeil, national leader of the centre-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) which governs nationally alongside Chancellor Friedrich Merz's conservatives, described the outcome as "truly dramatic" and called it a "signal to Berlin" that the federal government would hear.

Turnout was high across the state's population of 2.1 million, reaching 76.7%. Explaining their support, one voter told the BBC that the AfD was "a party for the working people", while another, a father of three named Bert, said he backed them because he feared safety in the region was eroding.

International reactions arrived quickly. US President Donald Trump shared a German television projection on Truth Social, which was then circulated by Russian presidential envoy Kirill Dmitriev, who praised what he termed a "historic win for the pragmatic AfD". By contrast, Poland's centre-right Prime Minister Donald Tusk said that "in Poland only idiots and traitors can rejoice at the triumph of the AfD".

What we do not know yet is how Saxony-Anhalt will actually be governed. Mainstream parties continue to maintain a "Brandmauer" — a political firewall refusing coalition deals with the far right. Siegmund has so far ruled out leading a minority administration, though national co-leaders Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla view it as an option. Meanwhile, the BSW party has passed the 5% threshold and offered to work with the AfD on specific issues.

Nationally, the AfD currently leads federal opinion polls ahead of Chancellor Merz's governing coalition, with its strongest support concentrated in the eastern states. I will keep you updated as coalition talks begin and the final parliament takes shape — check back for updates.