Russians have begun casting their ballots in the first election held since the Kremlin launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

The three-day vote will decide the allocation of seats in the Duma, Russia's lower house and principal legislative body. In total, around 111 million voters are eligible to take part between now and Sunday.

For the first time, voting is also being conducted across four Ukrainian regions that have been illegally annexed by Moscow.

Political analysts widely view the outcome as a foregone conclusion, with President Vladimir Putin's party, United Russia, virtually certain to maintain its grip on power. The party already holds more than two-thirds of the Duma's seats.

While there are 18 other parties in the country, the Kremlin has cherry-picked just 10 to appear on the ballot. These approved groups do not challenge the government with opposing legislation or voice open criticism, and the majority are unlikely to secure enough public support to gain parliamentary seats.

Analyst Mark Galeotti noted that while the Kremlin will ensure it "is still absolutely dominant within the Duma", United Russia might be "allowed to slip a little" simply to maintain a veneer of credibility.

Scrutiny over the fairness of the process is nothing new. The last national election in 2021 was heavily condemned for widespread irregularities by Golos, Russia's leading independent election monitor.

Beyond Russia's borders, the vote takes place against a backdrop of mounting alarm in eastern Europe. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk cautioned on Thursday that the Kremlin is preparing hybrid attacks using drones or missiles against European allies supporting Ukraine, including Poland.

Addressing the Polish parliament, Mr Tusk said there is "a real risk that drones or other types of projectiles will enter the territory of one or several countries on the eastern flank and even cause destruction." He warned that Russia would claim such incidents were accidental to "paralyse or at least weaken the motivation of Nato countries" to defend an attacked member state.

What we do not know yet is the exact seat breakdown the Kremlin will permit for the minor parties once polling concludes on Sunday. I'll be following this one — check back for updates.