A total of around 5,000 prisoners are now scheduled to be freed in stages over the next year, with the first wave of 700 offenders walking out of jails across England and Wales on 1 October.

The overall figure has been revised down from an initially projected 6,000 after ministers stepped in to exclude individuals convicted of manslaughter, rape, and the most serious child sex offences. The exclusions ensure the killers of PC Andrew Harper, who died on duty in 2019, will remain behind bars.

The early discharges come as fresh Ministry of Justice figures show the prison population in England and Wales rose by 1,738 inmates over the past three months, reaching 87,499 on Monday compared to 85,761 on 29 June.

Ministers insist the releases are necessary to prevent the justice system from running out of cell space. Justice Secretary Alex Norris said the government had inherited a crisis, stating: "We understand the anxiety victims face ahead of offenders’ release dates, but the greatest danger to victims would be prisons running out of cells for dangerous criminals." He added that the government plans to build 14,000 prison places to address the underlying shortages.

The Ministry of Justice said those released early will be subject to the "toughest supervision in British history".

Across the country, inmates have been seen celebrating their early release and thanking Prime Minister Andy Burnham. Outside HMP Durham, one prisoner carrying his belongings in a bin bag told reporters: "Justice system, what justice system? Thank you Andy Burnham." Outside HMP Cardiff, another freed man said: "Thank you very much and don’t get me back here again, bro."

Similar scenes played out across London and the South West. Inmates were seen leaving HMP Wandsworth, HMP Wormwood Scrubs, HMP Bristol, and HMP Brixton. Outside Wandsworth, 38-year-old shoplifter Michael Bogle was released after serving 78 days for breaching a suspended sentence. Mr Bogle, who has 100 previous convictions and was placed in a bail hostel, said: "Keep the early release going. It’s good," while acknowledging a risk he might reoffend. Ukrainian national Vladimir Hudzyk was among those celebrating outside Wormwood Scrubs.

At Brixton, 50-year-old David Elliott, who was jailed for theft, told reporters offenders needed external support rather than custodial sentences, before joking that he would continue stealing. Another released Brixton prisoner, 37-year-old Dean, expressed concern that violent individuals were among those walking free, saying: "You’ve got some wrong ‘uns coming out and they shouldn’t come out."

Despite statutory exclusions, offenders convicted of other serious crimes have been released under the scheme, including individuals serving sentences for domestic-related offences and dangerous driving.

The rollout has faced severe criticism. Conservative Shadow Justice Secretary Nick Timothy said the public would "pay the price" for the policy, describing it as an "insult to victims". Victims' Commissioner Claire Waxman warned that official confidence in the scheme "is not yet matched by the reality on the ground".

Labour MP Catherine Atkinson, chairwoman of the Commons Justice Committee, described the releases as "regretfully a matter of necessity after more than a decade of policy failure", but warned that serious questions remain over pressures on probation staff, electronic monitoring, and community readiness.

Reform UK MP Sarah Pochin warned of risks to public safety, arguing ministers should instead focus on deporting foreign offenders. Official figures show approximately 10,400 foreign nationals were held in custody as of March, including 6,458 sentenced prisoners and 3,588 on remand.

The releases also coincide with ongoing scrutiny over unused capacity across the prison estate. At HMP Dartmoor, cells remain empty following an evacuation prompted by radon gas detected at up to 10 times the recommended limit. Ministry of Justice data also shows several other establishments are operating below full capacity, though officials maintain staffing constraints dictate usable operational space.

Probation services and local authorities now face the immediate task of supervising and housing hundreds of offenders released at short notice. I will be monitoring the impact on local services closely as further release phases take place.