Killers, grooming gang perpetrators, and those responsible for the death of PC Andrew Harper will be barred from early prison release under revised sentencing rules announced by Prime Minister Andy Burnham.

The Downing Street announcement, made on Sunday ahead of parliament's return from recess, excludes sentences for unlawful killing from the early release scheme. That includes any form of manslaughter, causing death by dangerous driving, and causing or allowing the death of a child, alongside historical grooming offences.

The decision marks a major shift following significant controversy over the scope of the policy. Under the original proposals, all adults serving standard determinate sentences were set to qualify for early release. Backlash intensified in late July and early August when it emerged that the killers of police officer PC Andrew Harper, who were convicted of manslaughter, would be eligible. The government had already excluded rape and serious child sex offences in early August before stepping in this weekend to widen the ban.

For other eligible offenders, the sentencing adjustments are scheduled to take effect from 1 October 2026 across England and Wales. The Institute for Government explains that prisoners convicted of less serious offences who currently spend 40% or 50% of their sentence behind bars will leave after serving a third. A second group, currently released after two-thirds, will leave after half.

Crucially, the Institute for Government notes that leaving prison does not end a sentence. Offenders must serve the remainder of their term in the community on licence under probation supervision, and can be recalled to custody if conditions are breached. Murderers and those serving life or extended sentences have never been included in the scheme and will remain locked up until they go before the Parole Board.

The early release measures are being driven by severe pressure across the penal estate. The Labour government says it inherited a prison system on the brink of collapse, with fewer than 100 spaces left in the summer of 2024. Downing Street points to a lack of investment over the last decade—with only 500 net places added—leaving adult male prisons, including London's HMP Wandsworth, operating at 98% capacity.

Alongside the release exclusions, Burnham announced that his administration will abolish imprisonment for public protection (IPP) sentences before the current parliament ends in 2029. Introduced in 2005, IPP sentences set a minimum tariff without a maximum release date, leaving many offenders imprisoned well past their original terms for less serious offences. Downing Street described the reform as fixing an injustice that will also free up space, though it warned the process will take time.

To address concerns regarding public safety, Burnham said the government will implement the "toughest ever" supervision measures. These include offender tagging and the introduction of restriction zones designed to stop offenders from entering areas near their victims.

Campaigners, however, have questioned whether the government's approach goes far enough to fix the underlying system. Mike Trace, chief executive of the social justice charity the Forward Trust, warned that the policy "delays rather than deals with the problem of prison overcrowding." He argued that ministers should focus on expanding access to rehabilitation and earned early release schemes rather than automatic cuts to sentence times.

What we don't know yet is how significantly these new exclusions will alter the government's prison capacity projections over the coming months while long-term cell building takes place. With parliament returning this week, ministers will face immediate scrutiny over how they plan to manage the remaining capacity shortfall before the 2026 rules arrive. I'll be following this one — check back for updates.